What is the Consensus for 2009?

Saturday, October 10, 2009

The consensus oil price for the end of 2009 are the following:

Indeed, much of Wall Street expects oil prices to average about $50 a barrel in 2009. Some of the firms and their specific forecasts include:

Deutsche Bank predicts an average price of 47.50 for all of 2009; The chief energy economist of Deutsche Bank, Adam Sieminski, said recently that the demand for oil in 2009 will drop more than any other time in the last quarter of a century, due to the weak economy. Sieminski forecasts oil traded in New York falling as low as $30 and averaging $47.50 for the whole year.

Merrill Lynch has a very similar prediction, saying that prices will average 50 dollars; (if they could predict anything they would of remained independent...)

Moody’s Investors Service also says crude will average 50 a barrel in 2009

Goldman Sachs is predicting that prices will average $45 for all of next year – but predicta a drop to 30 dolars a barrel in the first quarter; (but Goldman just five months ago predicted oil prices would hit $200 a barrel in 2009).

Marc Faber doesn`t make any specific price prediction, but is buying oil at these prices;

Jim Rogers says that oil will reach 200 dollars a barrel maybe in 2013;

The Energy Information Administration projects crude oil will trade at an average of $51 a barrel in 2009

Barclays Capital has given its forecast of 76 a barrel for average U.S. crude in 2009, saying improving demand and a supply slide will combine to lift oil prices.

The forecast, at more than $17 above a consensus $58.48 in the most recent Reuters poll, was among the highest in the survey of 30 analysts.

Morgan Stanley predicts 82 for 2009. Morgan Stanley is the most bullish investment house on the street.

Bloomberg Consensus: Oil futures may rebound from their worst year to average $60 a barrel next year. The forecast, the median of 33 analysts compiled by Bloomberg, represents a 54 percent gain from today’s $39.03 price.

But please note that they were all wrong in the past. The Oil Traders Blog price for the end of 2009 is 60 dollars a barrel. Most of the move will be a direct consequence of the money printing scheme the FED put on and the dollar fall. Demand will remain weak, which can depress prices in Q1 and Q2.

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