Oil Bull and Bear Debate - Video

Monday, October 12, 2009













Where does oil go from here? Will Opec cut further? Will oil retest the 32 dollar a barrel low?

A bull/bear debate over the direction oil is headed, with Addison Armstrong, Tradition Energy and Raymond Carbone, Paramount Options.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Overbought or Oversold?

Are Oil and Natural Gas Futures overbought or oversold?


The green shading represents 2 standard deviations above and below the commodity's 50-day moving average. When the price moves above or below this green shading, the commodity is in extreme overbought or oversold territory.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Oil Demand at a 10 Year Low

Crude futures ended higher Wednesday, supported by equities even as a U.S. government report showed oil demand sinking and inventories increasing.

U.S. crude stockpiles, which were already at their highest point since September 1990, grew for a seventh consecutive week, as oil demand fell to a 10-year low, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

Our opinion is that oil futures will trade in a trading range between 42 and 47 dollars.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Very Good Article on Scaling In and Out of Positions

David Merkel wrote a very good article about the advantages of scaling in and out of positions. I like to trade that way and that the reason I highlight this article written on Seeking Alpha.

David Merkel, "The Wisdom of Half Positions"

This is my favourite part, "Scaling in and scaling out gives freedom to investors, and removing many of the psychological burdens that they bear. It doesn’t mean there won’t be losses. There will always be losses - but they will be easier to bear, with no panic that leads to selling off at the lows, or buying at the highs."

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Oil Inventories Out Today

Oil traded little changed before a report today forecast to show inventories in the U.S., the world’s largest energy consumer, rose from their highest level since 1990 as the recession reduced demand.

Crude oil stockpiles probably rose by 2.5 million barrels in the week ended April 17 from 366.7 million the previous week.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Oil Tumbles 9%

The price of oil plunged Monday as the dollar advanced, equities sold off and investors remained concerned about weak demand and rising inventories.

Crude prices tumbled four and a half dollars, or almost 9 percent, ending the session at 45.88 dollars a barrel.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Meredith Whitney Says US Economy Needs Rebuild From the Ground Up

Meredith Whitney ultimately believes that the entire U.S. economy needs to be rebuilt from the ground up. Financial services were our greatest export, she said, and now we need to create something new for the world to buy. That process, she believes, will take several years.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Roubini Says, Its a Suckers Rally

Nouriel Roubini says that he is “still bearish” and that an economic recovery is going to take “longer than expected.”

Regarding earnings, he added that they will “surprise on the downside. Lots of banks, even the better ones, are going to be in trouble.”

“The current rally is a bear-market rally,” Roubini told reporters in Hing Kong. “I don’t expect a 50 percent adjustment that I expected two years ago, but this is a dead-cat bounce, sucker’s rally, whatever you want to call it.”

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Angola`s Oil Output Above OPEC Quotas

Angola’s oil output was 1.6 million barrels a day last month, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, traders and producers. That is 103,000 barrels a day over their OPEC quota.

“It’s unlikely that you’ll get 100 percent compliance, given the lift we’ve seen in oil prices there is a greater incentive to cheat on those quotas.”


Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

87% of S&P Stocks are Above its 50 Day Moving Average

87% of stocks in the S&P 500 are currently above their 50-days simple moving average, which is the highest reading over the last year.

The market is overbought and may correct at any time.

Barton Biggs, S&P to 1100

Barton Biggs thinks the rally in the S&P still have some more legs to it, in his own words, “this could be a cyclical bull market that takes us to 1050 or 1100 on the S&P".

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Opportunity in the Natural Gas Futures?

The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States fell 30 to 760 last week, the lowest level in more than six years, according to a report issued on Friday by oil services firm Baker Hughes Inc in Houston.

United States natural gas drilling rigs have been in a declining since peaking above 1,600 last September and now stand about 701 below the same week last year. This is the lowest level since March 2003, when there were 754 gas rigs operating. A huge rally in Natural Gas followed and Natural Gas went from 4 USD in 2003 to 16 USD at the end of 2005.

Traders and analysts have said tight credit and a 70 percent slide in gas prices over the last nine months forced many producers to scale back drilling operations.

Near record-high gas production last year and a deepening recession that sharply cut demand led to a severe oversupply that collapsed gas prices to below the 4 dollars per mmBtu level from their peak above 13 dollars in July.

With the natural gas drilling rig count falling at a record pace this year, most analysts expect year-on-year output declines soon, probably by summer.

Gas rigs are expected to decline another 10 percent or so this year before bottoming at about 700, a level that should turn output negative and help tighten the overall supply-demand balance.

The supply and demand imbalance might set up a good buying opportunity in Natural Gas. You can buy Natural Gas through the United States Natural Gas Fund with the ticker UNG, or buy directly Natural Gas Futures on Nymex.

The UNG ETF is down 68.5% in the last year and down 26% in the last 3 months. Might be a good time to play the rebound in this commodity.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Oil: Biggest Weekly Decline Since February

Crude Oil Futures are set for the biggest weekly retracement in more than 8 weeks. U.S. crude-oil inventories rose 5.67 mln barrels to 366.7 million last week, the highest in 19 years.

U.S. fuel demand in the first quarter fell to the lowest for the period in 11 years, the American Petroleum Institute said in a monthly report yesterday.

Nymex crude oil futures are up 12 percent year to date.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Nobel Prize Winner Stiglitz Criticizes Bank Rescues

Nobel Prize winner, Stiglitz had some harsh comments on the Administration:

“All the ingredients they have so far are weak, and there are several missing ingredients”

"The people who designed the plans are either in the pocket of the banks or they’re incompetent.”

“You’re really bailing out the shareholders and the bondholders”

Stiglitz joins his views with many other reputed economists and investors.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Birinyi says Don`t Buy Stocks at these Levels

Buying stocks here is like crossing Fifth Avenue when the light is red,” Birinyi says. “You might make it, but the odds are not with you.”

“It’s time for a pullback,” Birinyi tells Bloomberg TV. “By almost every measure of an overbought market, it has done a remarkable job of trading through those measures.”

As a result, he says, “We’re looking for some consolidation. It can be a consolidation of time where the market just treads water for some time.”

“I would guess — and it’s only a guess — there will probably be a 5 to 10 percent pullback,” he says. “But again it could be a pullback in time, where we do nothing for a while and digest these gains.”

Lazlo Birinyi added, “I think the market has made a bottom. But in the markets of today where you have so much volatility, you have to be more sensitive to timing.”

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Oil Inventories Out Today

Crude oil futures struggled to hold gains Wednesday in Asia ahead of U.S. government oil data that could show the country's crude stockpiles climbing further to multiyear highs.

The federal Energy Information Administration is expected to post a fifth straight weekly build in crude inventories. Sentiment turned cautious after the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday reported a 6.5 million-barrel rise based on its own data.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Oil Down on IEA Demand Cut

Crude oil futures slid in Asia Tuesday as investors continued to digest an International Energy Agency downgrade to its 2009 global oil demand forecast.

Nymex crude settled 4.2% lower Monday after the IEA, an energy adviser to 28 industrialized nations, lowered its demand forecast by 1 million barrels a day and now expects the world will use about 83.4 million barrels daily in 2009.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Abby Joseph Cohen: The US Stock Market Have Hit Bottom

The US stock market appears to have hit bottom and the nation's economy might see an upward shift in the latter half of the year, widely watched investment strategist Abby Joseph Cohen told CNBC.

“One thing to keep in mind is that we have undergone many months of very dramatic declines in earnings expectations, and also in revisions to the economic forecast by macro-forecasters,” said Cohen, president of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Institute.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader

There's no Way to Go Back to Where We Came From

As a result of the bursting of that theoretical bubble, Americans' lives have been inexorably changed and "there's no way to go back to where we came from," says George Soros, chairman of Soros Fund Management.

Americans were "living in a fool's paradise" based on the "false promise" of the "market magic," and the idea debt-fueled consumption was a sustainable and legitimate economic policy, George Soros said today.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Time To Short Oil?

Crude oil futures surged above $50 a barrel Wednesday as U.S oil inventories increased by less than expected.

Crude stockpiles rose by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended April 3, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, close to the average forecast of a 1.9 million-barrel build given by analysts in a Dow Jones survey.

Light, sweet crude for May delivery traded $1.50, or 3%, higher at $50.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after trading as high as $51.10 a barrel.

Probably it is a good time to sell short July`s Nymex Crude Oil Futures at these levels (55.88 USD) and benefit from a correction in the oil prices and contango. If crude oil rises less than 10% till June/July you will be in the money. It looks like a nice deal.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

George Soros: This is a Bear Market Rally in Stocks

George Soros, the billionaire hedge- fund manager who made money last year while most peers suffered losses, said the four-week rally in U.S. stocks isn’t the start of a bull market because the economy is still shrinking.

“It’s a bear-market rally because we have not yet turned the economy around. This isn’t a financial crisis like all the other financial crises that we have experienced in our lifetime.”

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Soros: The U.S. economy is in for a "Lasting Slowdown"

The U.S. economy is in for a "lasting slowdown" and could face a Japan-style period of relatively low growth coupled with high inflation, billionaire investor George Soros.

"I don't expect the U.S. economy to recover in the third or fourth quarter so I think we are in for a pretty lasting slowdown," Soros said, adding that in 2010 there might be "something" in terms of U.S. growth.

So George Soros is quite pessimistic on the US economic recovery.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Daniel Yergin says 40 USD a Barrel













- There is still a very large over capacity;
- Inventories are very high;
- This year world demand will be 83.5 millions barrel a day against 86 millions barrels a day 2 years ago;
- There will be a cap on oil prices
- The sense that the recovery will take longer than antecipated may create a 40 to 60 trading range;

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader

Jim Cramer on USO

Jim Cramer argued against investing in the United States Oil Fund (USO). According to the digest at TheStreet.com:

"Cramer took aim at the United States Oil ETF in particular, calling the fund simply a travesty.

Cramer said the United States Oil Fund is not what it promises. The fund does not track the price of crude as it claims. Since the fund's [inception], crude oil has fallen 23%, yet the fund is down almost twice that at 54%. Just this year, oil is up 18%, but the United States Oil Fund is down 6%. This fund has nothing to do with oil at all, he said.

Cramer said the problem with the fund is that it doesn't buy oil, and instead buys oil futures. Since oil futures expire, the fund rolls over its contracts every month, incurring costs and expenses it'll never recover. Cramer said while the operations of the fund are legal, and listed in the [prospectus], investors need to steer clear at all costs."

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

The S&P 500 Has Now Been Up For 4 Straight Weeks

The S&P 500 has now been up for 4 straight weeks, registering a gain of 23.28%. Interestingly, the last time we had a 4-week winning streak that saw gains of at least 10% was 10/02-11/02, which was the start of the five year bull market that ran until 10/9/07.

Below we highlight all 4-week winning streaks of 10% or more for the S&P 500 going back to 1927. As shown, this is the 3rd strongest 4-week winning streak on record, and the strongest since April 1933.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

S&P 500 Volatility


Interesting article I have found on Bespoke,

In late 2008, the market experienced its most volatile 50-day period ever. At one point, the average daily move of the S&P 500 over the prior 50 days was +/-4%! While volatility is still very high, it has nearly been cut in half from its peak in late 2008. As shown below, the average daily change for the S&P 500 over the last 50 days has been +/-2.07%.



Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Crude Oil Falls After U.S. Inventories Climb to a 15-Year High

Crude Oil Falls After U.S. Inventories Climb to a 15-Year High .

Crude-oil inventories climbed 2.84 million barrels to 359.4 million in the week ended March 27, the highest since July 1993, the Energy Department said today. A 3-million-barrel increase was forecast, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Gasoline supplies rose by 2.23 million barrels to 216.8 million.

Word on The Trading Desks

“There are ample supplies of crude” said Mike Zarembski, senior commodity analyst at OptionsXpress Holdings Inc. in Chicago.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Oil Down Before Inventories

Crude oil futures fell Wednesday in Asia as traders liquidated long positions on caution ahead of weekly U.S. government oil data expected to indicate that demand and supply fundamentals remain weak.

The federal Energy Information Administration will put out its Weekly Petroleum Status Report at 1430 GMT.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Word on the Trading Desks

“Last week’s break above $50 looks as if it was a false dawn for the oil market bulls. Although OPEC production restraint has tightened the market, there’s still a big overhang of stocks." Christopher Bellew, senior broker at Bache Commodities Ltd.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Oil is Down For a Second Day

Crude oil declined for a second day as tumbling equity markets indicated that economic activity and demand for fuel may weaken further.

Global demand remains slack and oil is unlikely to reach $60 a barrel this year, Qatar’s Oil Minister Abdullah Bin Hamad Al-Attiyah said. Crude also dropped as the dollar strengthened to its highest against the euro in more than a week, limiting the appeal of commodities used to hedge against inflation.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Crude Oil Falls as Stronger Dollar Curbs Appeal of Commodities

Oil futures dropped from the highest close in 4 months as a stronger dollar reduced the appeal of commodities related investments.

Oil futures dropped as much as 3.4% on NYMEX after the US dollar surged almost 2% against the euro currency.

“The stronger dollar is bringing all of the commodities down” The Federal Reserve’s policies have become the major driver of the commodities.” Phil Flynn, trader at Alaron Trading Corp.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Oil has Bottomed Out

Investors are laying the groundwork for another bull run on the energy and commodities markets, in spite of signs suggesting the overall economy is still deteriorating.

Analysts and economists are saying with some confidence that oil prices have bottomed out. And Wall Street is taking notice that spot and futures prices for West Texas Intermediate crude have risen by nearly 40 percent since hitting $33 in December.

The best data show U.S. demand for oil is still weak. On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported a 4.6-million-barrel buildup in U.S. crude stockpiles, pushing prices lower. Demand in China is off by at least 15 percent year-over-year, and other bearish economic indicators will likely keep prices volatile in the short term.

The impact of the down economy has been felt more on the supply side than on demand, as reflected in OPEC's response, but especially in the sharp fall-off of new exploration and production activity in non-OPEC states.

But oil market watchers say the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, has conclusively dropped production faster than demand has fallen.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

U.S. inventories at 16-year highs

Crude oil futures closed lower yesterday as inventories in the United States jumped to a 16 year high.

Even though, crude oil futures have now closed above 50 dollars a barrel for five consecutive sessions.

Light, sweet crude for May delivery settled down $1.21 or 2.2%, at $52.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. May Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange settled $1.75 lower at $51.75 a barrel.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Oil Futures Down Ahead of Inventories

Crude oil futures fell Wednesday in Asia as traders exited long positions ahead of weekly U.S. government oil data that may show further increases in the country's crude stockpiles.

A similar report late Tuesday from an industry group showed inventories surged by 4.6 million barrels last week, well above analysts' expectations.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Paul Krugman: the U.S. Will Have to “Seize” Big Banks

Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman said the U.S. will eventually have to “seize” big banks as the economic and financial crisis deepens.

“In the end, we’ll come to it,” Krugman said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today, referring to nationalizing banks. “You guarantee the liabilities of everybody but seize the big ones.”

He also said the U.S. economy won’t stabilize until “late in the year.” Paul Krugman joins Stiglitz, another Nobel laureate to express his concerns over this bank plan.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz on the Geithner Plan

The U.S. government plan to rid banks of toxic assets will rob American taxpayers by exposing them to too much risk and is unlikely to work as long as the economy remains weak, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said on Tuesday.

"The Geithner plan is very badly flawed," Stiglitz told Reuters in an interview during a Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

S&P 500 Crosses 50 Day Moving Average

I have found a very good article on Bespoke Investment Group Blog. They mention the S&P crossing the 50 day moving average.

Sentiment is positive for risk taking investments like long oil positions.

"After breaking above its 50-day moving average briefly early last week, the S&P 500 failed to take out this resistance level and headed lower for the remainder of the week. But the index has broken above its 50-day once again this morning, and its ability to hold above this level will be a key test for whether or not this rally can continue. The S&P's 50-day is currently at 795, so watch for where the index closes in relation to this level today."


Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Oil Futures Trade at Multi Month Highs

Nymex Crude Oil Futures rose to 53 dollars a barrel this morning to the highest levels in almost four months. The move is being supported by a weak dollar, and the US plan to remove toxic assets from bank balance sheets.

Crude oil Futures rose 64 cents to 52.71 dollars a barrel.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Latest Hugh Hendry Videos - Part 1













Hugh Hendry is a british contrarian hedge fund manager. One of the best in this field.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Hugh Hendry - The Eccentric Hedge Fund Manager

I have found this very interesting article about my favourite hedge fund manager on Seeking Alpha. Here in the Oil Traders Blog you can watch all of Hugh Hendry`s videos. He is not only insightful but very fun to listen to.

"Hendry does not have the notoriety of a Jon Paulson but he has been prescient in many of his calls - plus he has agreed with me on many topics (always a bonus).

As a guest, he is incredibly engaging with wicked wit (snark) and the ability to dance around (or verbally undress) opponents. He is a bit cocky though. I am posting a series of 4 videos from this month - all before the Fed decision to go Banana Republic, but in case you missed it, the United Kingdom chose the same path (create debt with one hand of power, and buy it with the 2nd hand), so much of what he talks about applies to both countries. He is firmly in the deflation camp and no matter what amount of printing presses, he thinks we're going Japan.

Unfortunately for those who disagree with him he has been spot on, on his calls up to here - I don't have firm data on his performance but he says he made 32% in 2008 and is up 10% through March in 2009, which spanked the pants off most professionals worldwide. "Pundit-wise" he has been nailing things. At the bottom of this post is an "editorial" he wrote back in November 2008.

Inflation will become a reason to worry for authorities again at some point, but they should think about combating deflation right now, Hendry said. "It is coming back in the future. All I'm saying it is just an unprofitable proposition at the time," he said. Betting on inflation is as if "we got a new book and we've read the last page. But if you read the entire novel, it's a different journey."

The market has grown for about 30 years and for a long period, it will be "going nowhere," Hendry said, likening this period with the one after the crash of 1929 and with the crisis in Japan at the beginning of the 1990s, despite claims that this time it is different because the world has evolved."

Oil Rallies 10% This Week

Oil futures ended lower on the last trading day of the week, pressured by an upmove in the US Dollar.

Even though, prices held above 51 dollars a barrel and ended the week up 10 percent.

The Federal Reserve's aggressive measures boosted optimism of a global economic recovery and on the reflation trade. Inflation might just be around the corner.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Oil Up on Fed's Bond Move and Weak Dollar

"We have for the time being a return to risk appetite in the oil market and it's based on the Fed's announcement yesterday" said analyst Mike Wittner of Societe Generale.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Oil Tops $50 as Inflation Concern Spurs Commodities

Crude oil rose to near 50 dollars a barrel for the first time in more than 2 months, after the U.S. FED announced plans to spend 1 trillion dollars buying back long term debt.

The Fed is seeking to purchase U.S. Treasuries, mortgage- backed bonds and other debt, raising optimism that moves to end the global recession will increase fuel demand. The dollar traded near a two-month low against the euro, prompting investors to purchase oil as a hedge against inflation.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Meredith Whitney: This Year will be Worse than 2008

A surge in borrower defaults and unemployment pressures will make 2009 an even uglier year for banks than last year, analyst Meredith Whitney said.

Meredith Whitney predicts "breakups and M&As on a grand scale" as the financial industry seeks to remake itself in the face of all its capital pressures. This were Meredith Whitney`s comments:

"I don't think this year is going to look any better than last year. In fact it will look worse because there's so much credit coming out of the system."

"The probability of more people going into default is higher, so the banks are going to have a tough time"












Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Pimco`s El-Erian: Early to Call a Market Bottom

"If you're intellectually honest, we simply don't know. There are so many moving pieces. The reality is we were overdue for a technical bounce. We're getting it, but it's too early to call the bottom with any conviction."

But El-Erian said things are changing too rapidly and there is too much uncertainty over Washington policy-making decisions to declare that the worst has passed for the economy and Wall Street.

"It's an upside-down world where everybody is in the same boat and you need a lot of coordination so that we can navigate what are pretty fluid conditions. There is some good news but there's also some bad news."

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Oil Outlook













Fadel Gheit, managing director of oil and gas research at Oppenheimer & Co., and CNBC contributor Ron Insana share their outlooks for oil.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

Oil Goes Down on OPEC Decision

Oil traded down to around 44 dollars a barrel today after OPEC decided to leave existing output targets unchanged.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

OPEC agreed to keep oil production quotas unchanged

OPEC agreed to keep oil production quotas unchanged and will meet again on May 28 to review targets, ministers said after today’s meeting in Vienna.

“We decided to leave this unchanged and now it is time to fully adhere to the cuts we agreed upon” said Qatari Oil Minister.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries met in Vienna today to discuss possible action to revive prices that remain $100 below July’s record even after a record production cut agreed on in December. Oil futures have risen 3.7 percent this year to finish last week at $46.25 a barrel in New York.

Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.

A new Tax of 0.25% per Trade?

One congressman wants to tax the value of all trades one quarter of 1%. The man who introduced the bill is congressman Peter Defazio Democrat from Oregon. These were his comments on Fox News:

" Well you know we heard this before 1932, when congress doubled the then tax of point 22%. Devastatingly diminish banking business threaten the country's banking structure, possible closing of the stock exchange. The stock exchange at that point was that 41. Congress doubled the tax and use the money to rebuild America. And then of course the stock exchange went up to a thousand before the tax was allowed -- in 1966. The brits have a tax of one half of 1% of all trades on the London exchange I think people are still doing business there aren't --"

One thing is for sure, if this tax goes through the Dow Jones will trade below 5,000 in a nutshell.

Conoco CEO sees Oil at 60 to 70 USD

ConocoPhillips' (COP) chief executive said Wednesday that the company sees oil prices moving up to $60 or $70 a barrel over time but not going more than $80.

Speaking at the company's analyst meeting in New York, Jim Mulva said the Houston-based oil giant's strategy is based on modest oil prices.

"We don't have expectations of oil prices of $80, $90, $100, but we do look at oil prices moving up from the low levels we've seen," Mulva said. "Maybe in neighborhood of $60 to $70 over time."

In the same meeting, ConocoPhillips Chief Financial Officer Sig Cornelius said the company needs oil prices to average $52 a barrel and natural gas prices to average $6 per million British Thermal Units to break even and for it to able to pay dividends in 2009. If oil prices average $40 a barrel, ConocoPhillips could lose $3 billion this year and force the company to cut its capital expenditure budget further, he said.

"We believe we do have flexibility to make further capital reductions if necessary," Cornelius said. "Our debt may creep up if facing that scenario." He added, however, that reducing the company's dividend is not under consideration.

ConocoPhillips reduced its 2009 budget to $12.5 billion.

Answering questions about possible acquisitions, Mulva said bringing down debt takes priority over making purchases.

"Given our share price...and our debt position, we really think the priority is bringing the debt down," he said.

Earlier Wednesday, the company's exploration and productions vice president said ConocoPhillips' current strategy doesn't include acquisitions targets, but the company isn't ruling out entering into deep-water joint ventures.

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