Oil Consensus for 2009, 2010, 2011

Friday, October 9, 2009

These are the consensus for Oil Prices for the end of 2008 and 2009:

The median estimate for the end of this quarter remains at $66, which is more than $20 above the current price of oil. (...) For the end of the first quarter, analysts are collectively looking for a price of $64.

By the end of Q3 '09, analysts expect oil to be at $71.5. Expectations are for $83 by the end of 2010, $100 by the end of 2011, and $95 by the end of 2012. Based on these estimates, analysts aren't expecting the speculative high of $145 to be reached at any time over the next four years, but they are expecting a considerable rebound. In Bespoke Investment Group


In the Oil Traders Blog you can find every oil projection, forecast and opinion from market movers. Follow live oil prices with charts on the Oil Traders Blog. A Blog from traders to traders.

China Uses Less Oil

IEA said that the Chinese economy is slowing, according to diverse indicators on manufacturing, power generation, retail sales and trade. The growth in passenger car sales has virtually stalled since last summer, after rising at double digit rates for several years in a row.

China’s industrial production grew at the weakest pace in almost a decade as export growth collapsed. Output rose 5.4 percent in November from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today. None of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted such a small increase. Production grew 8.2 percent in October.

That is a very bearish signal for crude oil. Is this China slowdown totally factored in prices?

Word on the Pits

"The global economy is so ghastly that there have to be further declines. We could see oil prices between $10 and $20 a barrel. It's going to be ugly," said Verleger, a professor at the University of Calgary's Haskayne School of Business.

"I don't think it has bottomed out yet," said John Kingston, global director of oil for Platts, an energy information company.

"We might test $50 a barrel and maybe get to $55 a barrel, but it won't last, OPEC and Russia will do all they can to keep oil above $40, but I still think that $35-a-barrel oil is the longer-term target." Phil Flynn, vice president and senior market analyst for Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago

Oil traders are rather bearish but crude oil futures are moving up. Look for a test at 50 dollar a barrel today or tomorrow.

Oil Rises on Obama 1 Trillion Package

Rumors about the size of Barack Obama`s stimulus package sent oil prices higher this morning. People familiar with this matter say that the stimulus package may reach 1 trillion dollars versus the half trillion considered just 2 weeks ago. This is very bullish for crude oil prices beacause its a very inflationary measure and is a possible real stimulus for a very depressed economy.

Obama has said the package will include an initial tax cut and a massive infusion of funds for roads, bridges, water systems, school repair, spreading broadband access, promoting health-care information technology, improving energy efficiency in buildings, renewable-energy projects, and assisting struggling state and local governments. But the balance of those projects is still under debate.

OPEC pressures Russia to Cut Production

Saudi Arabia said OPEC will cut oil production by about 2,000,000 barrels a day. Saudi oil minister Ali Naimi said “supply is still somewhat in excess of demand” and global stockpiles are higher than normal.

OPEC is pressing Russia and other producers outside the cartel to cut production by 600,000 barrels a day.

“Russia is an important country and we expect it to reduce 400,000 barrels a day to support OPEC’s decision,” OPEC’s secretary general el-Badri, stated today in Algeria.

Oil ended the session down down 0.91 at 43.60 on the NYMEX. In the after-hours electronic trading oil fell to 42.56.

This turnaround in oil prices followed a very volatile Monday, in which crude oil futures had just touched the very important psychological level of 50 dollars a barrel for the first time in two weeks and then reversing to close down 4% on the day.

Iran wants 100 dollar Oil

Iran's oil minister said he considered the "real price" for a barrel of crude should be more than $100 and a senior Iranian official said OPEC needed to cut oversupply from the market, Iranian media reported on Saturday.

This is what is call Wishful Thinking. But where will oil go from here? In the short term it may rebound a little further benefiting from the dollar weakness.

Goldman Sachs lowers Oil Outlook

Goldman Sachs, one of the largest energy traders in the markets, loewred its 2009 price forecast for crude oil to 45 dollars a barrel. Goldman Sachs last estimate for 09 was 40% higher.

"We revise down our 2009-2011 crude oil price forecasts in view of a more severe than expected deterioration in oil demand globally," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote on the report.

Goldman predicts that crude oil futures will trade at an average of 30 dollars a barrel in the first quarter of 2009. Goldman once was the most bullish investment house on the street. They are throwing the towel on oil now.

Crude Oil Plunges on Auto Bailout Failure

Oil futures fell 6 percent Friday after rallying more than 10% yesterday.

The reason for this fall is the failure of the Auto Bailout in the Senate. Crude oil futures for January delivery fell 2.92, or 6%, to 45 a barrel in electronic trading on Globex.

Global oil consumption will drop this year for the first time since 1983

Global oil consumption will be less than last year`s for the first time since 1983. The economic slowdown in the US and in Europe and slower growth in China cuts gasoline and oil demand, according to IEA.

The IEA projects world demand to fall by 200,000 barrels per day to 85.8 mln barrels a day during 2008. This forecast is 350,000 barrels a day less than IEA`s most recent projection just last month.

Oil demand may rebound in 2009, with consumption growing by 0.5%, or 400,000 barrels a day. That is still 260,000 barrels a day less than was expected last month.

Even though oil rallied almost 10% on the NYMEX session. Follow live cude oil prices here on the Oil Traders Blog.

Oil’s Implied Volatility Rises to 22-Year High

We have seen hige volatility in every market including oil. Options show the highest volatility in oil since 1986.

“Even though prices have fallen dramatically, we’re still seeing daily ranges that are $3, $4, $5 a barrel, which is not that different from the daily ranges we were seeing at $130 a barrel,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in New York.

Russia may also Cut Production

Faced with falling oil prices, Russia is preparing to announce that it will work with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to coordinate a reduction in output, the minister of energy said Wednesday.

This is the first time that the Kremlin has offered to reduce output.

Russia announced that by December 17, the date of the next scheduled OPEC meeting, Russia will announce a plan to reduce the country’s oil production. Mr. Shmatko, russian oil minister said Russia would also seek to persuade other non-OPEC producers to reduce output. In fact, Russian oil output is declining in any case, as costs rise and deposits are depleted.

“Russia wants to make official what has already happened,” Vitaly Y. Yermakov, research director for Russian and Caspian energy at Cambridge Energy Research Associates, said.

Russia pumps about 9.8 million barrels of oil a day, the second-greatest output in the world after Saudi Arabia, and exports about seven million barrels of crude oil and refined products, mostly to Europe.

Kremlin officials have suggested that they may help OPEC, though petroleum analysts say the official comments may be intended mostly to mollify OPEC members, and encourage them to make production cuts, rather than indicate any serious Russian intention to help fix prices.

Short Squeeze in Action

THe short squeeze I`ve predicted here 3 days ago is under way helped by a weaker dollar and a better stock market sentiment. Russia is preparing to announce that it will work with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to coordinate a reduction in output. That is positive news flow and is also helping. Oil can continue its upmove to 50 USD a barrel in the next few session.


Can Oil Hold 40 USD?

Crude oil rose as traders bought contracts to close out bets that prices will fall and on signs that OPEC will cut production at a meeting next week.

OPEC may cut its output by 2,5 million barrels a day to support oil prices, billionaire hedge-fund manager Boone Pickens said. Traders who were short, or betting that prices would fall, are purchasing futures and closing their positions after oil dropped more than 20% in the past two weeks.

“It seems that 40 USD a barrel is a bastion of support for oil,” said Robert Laughlin, senior broker at MF Global Ltd. in London. “I am expecting OPEC to do something major, there is no option to do nothing.”

Can the 40 dollar support level for crude oil futures hold? For the time being it seems like it will.

Oil Supply/Demand Fundamentals

According to the IEA world oil demand growth is expected to slow to an average of 86.3 mln barrels per day during 2009 down from earlier forecasts that approached 87 mln barrels per day.

Oil Supply is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.2% and expected to hit 87 mln bpd in 2009, which is less than the previous forecast for global supply growth of 1.6% per annum.

However going forward demand from developed countries is expected to continue to contract at the average rate of 200,000 barrels per day that implies the full impact of peak oil will be put off for as long as another 5 years.

Price Overshoot to 20 USD? Nonsense.

Mechelany, an asset manager from Bank of China said that "Prices tend to overshoot both on the upside and on the downside. In the context of the latest movement $20 is only one standard deviation from $35, which I consider to be the long-term equilibrium price," said Mechelany from Bank of China. Its like Merrill predicting 25 dollar oil. If they had forecasted the oil declined maybe they didn`t have to sell themselves to Bank of America.

I have to say that these projections seems like those made at the top that estimated oil at 250 USD. I really don`t think oil will go into the low thirties, much less to 20. Now, the consensus projections points to 53 USD oil in 2009. But the oil market is active and opportunities on both side of the market are plentiful.

Word on the Pits

Word on the Pits:What are the Oil Traders saying?

“Commodities rise is more equity influence than anything else,” Kevin Tuohy a trader at MF Global

“It’s still too early to say whether the rebound is a dead-cat bounce or that commodities have found a base.” Kevin Tuohy a trader at MF Global

“The oil price is now on the brink of an abyss,” Tetsu Emori, Tokyo-based manager of Astmax Commodity Global Macro Fund

“Even if the cartel makes a substantial production cut, it won’t be enough to lift oil prices back up to the $60 mark if we see more drops in U.S. consumer spending.” Tetsu Emori, Tokyo-based manager of Astmax Commodity Global Macro Fund

"The possibility of OPEC moving to tighten up the oil market is real," David Moore, commodity strategist with Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.

What will move OIL in the next few days:

-Stock Markets: If stocks continue to trend higher it should help oil prices

-The Dollar: If the dollar weakens further, oil might continue its up move


Oil: Major Short Squeeze Around the Corner?

Crude oil just had the biggest weekly drop since the Persian Gulf War in 1991; since November 28 alone, oil is down 25 percent. Quite a drop.

The sentiment in the oil pits is that “It’s all about the economy” and “There’s not much that can be done right now to keep prices from falling off a cliff”. Major pessimism is set in and Merrill Lynch is even predicting 25 dollar oil.

For all that I can see, conditions are set for a major short squeeze in the Crude Oil Futures. Prices have dropped 72 percent since reaching a record $147.27 on July 11, so a short squeeze could take us to 60 or 70 dollars in a nutshell. At this time, technical analysis and fundamental analysis are saying “SELL” but the selloff is probably overdue. As Rockfeller used to say “the time to buy is when blood is running on the streets.”

What the catalyst might be for this short covering rally? Maybe OPEC, maybe nothing. OPEC`s President, Chakib Khelil, recently commented that no decision on the output cut has been made yet but it would be severe. Oil might trade in the 60s before the end of the year.

This article was originally published on Seeking Alpha.

OPEC might Cut Production Agressively

Chakib Khelil OPEC`s president stated that a production cut will probably be made on the December 17 meeting.

OPEC`s President commented that no decision on the output cut has been made yet but it would be severe. The problem for OPEC producers is that nobody really believes they will cut production because they all need to sell all the oil they can to balance their national budgets. Oil analysts predict that an OPEC might cut by as much as 2 million barrels a day.

Khelil stated that he thought a fair price for oil was seventy dollars a barrel. Quite optimistic, not?

Biggest weekly drop since the Persian Gulf War in 1991

Crude oil fell for a sixth day, capping the biggest weekly drop since the Persian Gulf War in 1991.

Oil is down 25 percent since November 28.

The International Energy Agency, U.S. Energy Department and OPEC lowered demand forecasts over the past month because of the contraction.

“It’s all about the economy,” said Christopher Edmonds, the managing principal of FIG Partners Energy Research & Capital Group in Atlanta. “There’s not much that can be done right now to keep prices from falling off a cliff.”

Prices have dropped 72 percent since reaching a record $147.27 on July 11.

“After the jobless number, any bulls that were left in the market will become extinct,” said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president of global energy futures at Macquarie Futures USA Inc. in New York. “There are no redeeming features in these numbers.”

Look for a massive short squeeze in oil soon.

Merrill Lynch predicts 25 USD / Barrel

Crude oil may dip below $25 a barrel next year if the recession that’s slashing fuel demand around the world spreads to China, Merrill Lynch & Co. said.

This is the most bearish call I have seen in a while. But the sentiment in the oil pits is so dark that oil traded lower today even with a falling dollar.

Oil Crashes

Oil futures are still down substantially. Oil is now down 5% to $44.44 per barrel. That marks crude's lowest intraday level in nearly four years.

Merrill Lynch predicts 25 dollar oil next year. What about that?

OPEC President: There is no "floor" for the price

There is no "floor" for the price for a barrel of oil, OPEC president Chakib Khelil said Wednesday as the price of crude tumbled under 45 dollars, its lowest level since February 2005.

"Prices can drop to a very, very low level, it depends on supply and demand conditions, inventory levels, and also the future of global economic growth," he said during an interview with Spanish public radio RNE.

Major productions cuts will be annouced, but will they really cut?

Word on the Pits:

"Oil prices will extend declines during the next 12 to 18 months if OPEC fails to implement “sufficient cuts” and supply stays at current levels", according to Christof Ruehl, the chief economist of BP Plc

“Most of the drop is due to speculators de-leveraging,” said Joan McCullough, macro strategist at East Shore Partners

“We won’t see the oil market rebound until either OPEC makes a substantial production cut or the economy begins to recover and we start to see demand for refined products firm up,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst at Tradition Energy

“It’s all about demand, demand, demand,” said Kyle Cooper, an analyst at IAF Advisors

Follow crude oil prices here on the Oil Traders Blog. In depth analysis on the crude oil futures markets with analysis from the top energy traders and analysts. If you want to know where crude oil is going come to this website.

Inventories Falls: Can Oil Rally?

Pit traders are looking for 50 dollars a barrel later today.

Day high: 48.10
Day Low: 46.26

(after EIA data)

Is it time for a major short squeze?

Oil Rises From 3-Year Low as OPEC Signals Plan to Cut

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries intends to reduce oil output on December 17 in Algeria, Qatar’s Oil Minister said today.

The U.S. Energy Department releases its weekly report on fuel inventories later today.

“I’m very sure OPEC will cut on Dec. 17, it has to be at least 1 million barrels a day,” said Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich in Vienna. “Prices are at a very low level, well below the marginal cost of supply, so I don’t expect oil to drop too much.”


"There are much clearer signs that China is slowing, and this has caused the recent leg down in prices," said Mark Pervan, senior commodity strategist with ANZ Bank

Oil Falls to 3-Year Low


Crude oil fell to the lowest in more than three years on signs the U.S., the world’s largest energy consumer, may be in the longest slump since World War II.

“Demand is going down from week to week, hand-in-hand with the worldwide slowdown in economic growth,” said Gerrit Zambo, an oil trader at BayernLB in Munich.

“If sentiment gets worse and equities move lower we could see oil go to $40.”

Oil futures tumbled more than 9% Monday, coming under heavy selling pressure after OPEC left current output targets unchanged and in the face of weak economic data from around the world.

Follow crude oil futures live in the Oil Traders Blog. Every day over 7500 million dollars of crude oil are traded on NYMEX alone. If you want to be a trader specialize in the oil market.

Sentiment is the oil markets is bearish and as Marty Schwartz used to say, if a market is below the 10 day exponential moving average, look for opportunities to short.

OPEC ends Cairo meeting without announcing new cuts in crude output

OPEC held off on announcing new oil output cuts on Saturday, but its alarm over falling demand and a slumping economy potentially laid the groundwork for a big reduction when it meets again in a matter of weeks.

Where is oil heading this week? Down to 50 or higher to 60 USD?

Global demand for oil will rebound in 2010-2011

Global demand for oil will rebound in 2010-2011 and prices may then exceed their peak levels of July 2008, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.

In July U.S. crude oil prices reached a record high above $147 a barrel but have since dropped and were trading below $54 on Thursday.

"We can see almost every day that projects are being cancelled (due to the financial crisis) and this is bad news (...) as supply is being withdrawn, but demand will eventually rebound in 2010-2011. We may see prices going even higher than we saw this summer," Fatih Birol told a seminar in Warsaw.

Oil down to 53 USD

"It looks like $50 is a support level," said Gerard Rigby, an energy analyst with Fuel First Consulting in Sydney. "But when it gets up to $54, people take profits. No one wants to get too bullish."

Prices have fluctuated between about $50 and $54 a barrel this week as investors grapple with the impact the global economic slowdown will have on crude demand.

ENI CEO says Oil may go down a little more


Oil prices could fall further, Italian oil company Eni SpA's chief executive officer, Paolo Scaroni, was quoted as saying on Saturday.

'I think for a little while yes,' Italian news agency ANSA quoted Scaroni saying on the sidelines of an event when asked whether oil prices would fall further.

'It depends on what OPEC will decide ... in Cairo.'

Oil has been drifting downwards and is trading around 50 dollars a barrel. But where will it be 1 year from now? Much higher we think.

IEA bearish on OIL

Oil prices are set to remain under downward pressure next year as a weak global economy hits demand with worries for investment projects, the International Energy Agency's (IEA) chief economist said on Thursday.

"I think there will definitely be downward pressure on the prices next year," the IEA's Fatih Birol told a news conference during a visit to Dublin.

"The economic situation will have an impact on the demand and therefore on the prices."

Is all this already discounted on prices? Track live crude oil futures here on Oil Traders Blog.

Oil Capitulation


Oil prices fell to their lowest level in more than three years, dropping below $50 a barrel on Thursday, after shedding close to $100 since July as an ailing global economy pared consumption.


The sudden reversal has startled many experts. Oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $49.62 a barrel, down 7 percent, their lowest since May 2005. They have lost more than two-thirds of their value after settling at a peak above $145 a barrel in July.

Some analysts predict that oil could fall to $30 to $40 a barrel as the world economy worsens.

Is this the bottom fot oil prices? Have we witnessed a selling capitulation of the oil bulls?

Crude Oil Heading Into Severe Oversold Territory


Crude Oil Heading Into Severe Oversold Territory By Mike Paulenoff, http://www.mptrader.com/

Yesterday's break in crude oil and downside follow-through from the 7-year trendline at $61.60 to new bear-market lows at $56.35 has accelerated into a new downleg that is pointed right for a test of the Jan 2007 low of $49.90 next. Such a decline represents another 12% on the downside, which should press weekly oil into relatively severe oversold territory for oil and its related US Oil Fund ETF (AMEX:USO). Only a rally that sustains above $62.00 will begin to repair the technical damage inflicted during the past few sessions.

For more of Mike Paulenoff, see his ETF Trading Diary at http://www.mptrader.com/ . To view the chart in today's analysis, visit http://www.mptrader.com/marketshistory.php?id=1190 .

Learn how to trade oil futures and you will get rich. Best online analysis on crude oil futures completely free. What is the best way to learn how to trade? Trading!

Oil Keeps Falling

Oil slipped below $54 a barrel Wednesday as stock markets across the globe fell and yet another U.S. government report illustrated the disarray in the housing market.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery fell 77 cents to settle at $53.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, about where prices were in January of 2007.

The dollar reversed course and traded up during the day, putting pressure on crude oil. Is this the time to test 50 dollars?

LONG OIL?

Dollar is weak today, Oil Inventories will be released >>> Good Day to Enter LONG OIL!!

Maybe it will have some wind on its back.

Crude Oil Falls to 22-Month Low


Crude Oil Falls to 22-Month Low in New York on Demand Concerns. This is the lowest price on a active contract since January 30, 2007.

When will this trend reverse? Maybe a 50 USD testing might be needed before we see a decent oil rally.

Oil Inventories will be released tomorrow

Crude oil stockpiles probably climbed 1 mln barrels last week, according to Bloomberg. Follow crude oil futures with live quotes were on the Oil Traders Blog. Written by traders, to traders.

Bloomberg: Oil is Down Again


Oil fell for a second day as Japan entered its first recession since 2001 and China's largest crude producer said demand had declined ``sharply.''

Oil rebounded temporarily when a supertanker owned by Saudi Aramco was hijacked by pirates off the coast of Kenya. OPEC slashed its 2009 demand forecast for a third month as the looming global recession threatens fuel consumption. The group may wait until December to cut output, its president said.

``As the stream of bearish news continues unabated, oil prices are again under pressure,'' said Christopher Bellew, senior broker at Bache Commodities Ltd. in London. ``The only hope for a price recovery is a big production cut by OPEC or a shut-in of some high-cost non-OPEC production.'' in Bloomberg

“The overwhelming trend is that global demand is down sharply, led by the drop in the U.S.,” said Antoine Halff, head of energy research at Newedge USA LLC in New York. “It’s now becoming clear that the Chinese economy is being hit harder than expected by what is happening in the U.S. I don’t think we’ve fully factored in the slowdown in China.” in Bloomberg

Sentiment is bearish, oil is heading down.

Oil falls to 56 USD


Oil prices fell on Monday to 56 dollars a barrel despite the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said it was ready to intervene on a regular basis to help prop up the market.

Prices in London last week slumped to three-and-a-half-year lows close to 50 dollars, prompting the OPEC exporters' cartel to call an emergency meeting to discuss a mooted output reduction. Today in its monthly report, OPEC stated "closer monitoring and more frequent intervention are required."

The oil cartel is to hold an extraordinary meeting on November 29 in Cairo amid speculation that member nations will agree to cut output again in a bid to boost plunging oil prices.

Will Oil test the 50 dollar mark? Probably.

Pickens on Oil: "I don't see any lower than it is today"


But Pickens said not to worry, oil prices will be heading back up and soon.

"I don't see any lower than it is today", Boone Pickens said yesterday. He`s been wrong lately but he is an oil man and has been more right than wrong in the past.

He said that oil will be back to $100 a barrel within a year and that all other commodities will jump back up as well.

Oil Falls Again. Going to 50 USD/ Barrel?


Oil prices fell early today to the lowest level since early 2007. Oil traders are concerned about the economic outlook and demand for energy.

On the NYMEX electronic trading session Light Sweet Crude fell to 57,90 USD a barrel, the lowest price since March 20th 2007, a 20 month low.

Is it a buy here? Jim Rogers said last week on Bloomberg that he was buying and several oil traders are talking about supply constrains going forward.

But sentiment, at least for now is negative. Is 50 dollar oil on the horizon?

IEA may cut Oil Demand by 700,000 Barrels/Day

The International Energy Agency may cut its 2009 oil demand forecast for a third month as the threat of the worst recession since World War II saps fuel consumption, former IEA analysts said.

The Paris-based adviser to 28 oil consuming nations will reduce the estimated growth in global demand from 700,000 barrels a day, or 0.8 percent, in its next monthly report on Nov. 13, said four analysts who used to work at the IEA and are now at banks. The International Monetary Fund last week warned of the first simultaneous recession in the U.S., Japan and Europe in more than 60 years. in Bloomberg

Oil is trading lower today near the low 60`s support level. The dollar is trading up, so probably crude oil is going lower today.

Follow crude oil futures prices quotes live here on Oil Traders Blog. Completely free. Óne site from traders to traders. Crude oil futures is the best trading instrument available. Learn to trade crude and you will get rich.

Oil prices fluctuated throughout the day


Oil prices fluctuated throughout the day Monday, tracking closely with the path on Wall Street where an early rally failed to hold and the dollar reversing its early losses against the euro. Crude Oil futures continue to trade opposite to the dollar.

December Light Sweet Crude rose 1.37 to settle at 62.41 a barrel on the NYMEX Monday, but traded as low as 59.10 at midday.

Qatar Oil minister fears a Supply Crisis

Oil prices should be above 70 dollars/barrel to stimulate investments in increased production capacity. With oil prices below 70 dollars, we can hava e medium to long term supply crisis, Qatar's oil minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said on Monday.

"Now what we are seeing is that the oil price went to a level that leads me to be concerned it will create another crisis in the short term or medium term for supply," Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said.

Oil dips below 60 USD

Crude oil futures were rising due to the Chinese economic stimulus package Saudi Arabia's Aramco plan to cut oil deliveries to Asia by 5% but reversed and traded below 60 dollars a barrel.

Oil Forecasts



Oil is now 88 dollars below its all time high and touches a 20 month low. Where is it headed now?

Boone Pickens Oil Forecast

Pickens predicts that price will recover to about $100 per barrel during 2009. "This is the worst credit crunch I've ever had," he said, adding, "We've been through them before; you just work your way through it." He predicts consolidation as the oil industry struggles to cope with the price plunge.

"I guess I'm kind of anxious to see the first offer for a company," he said. "We may be a few months away from it."

Jim Rogers Oil Forecast

"Whether oil costs 45 or 145 dollars, it doesn’t really matter. What does matter is that with oil, like with many other commodities, supply is decreasing while demand is increasing. In the long run this will result in a considerable increase in prices."

"The question is not if the price of a barrel of oil will increase again, but how expensive a barrel of oil will be eventually?"

"The oil supply will fall with 6 to 9 per cent each year, according to the IAE. The demand for oil will increase in China and developing countries. This has nothing to do with economy, the market is simple. It is simply the law of supply and demand."

The International Energy Agency Oil Forecast

The International Energy Agency, which advises industrialized nations on energy policy, warned on Thursday that the supply shortfalls that pushed oil prices into triple-digit territory this year are far from resolved, and could lead to a new period of high prices. As a result of higher prices and lower growth, the energy agency slashed its forecast for global oil demand by more than 10 million barrels a day over the next two decades. It now expects oil consumption to reach 106 million barrels a day in 2030, up from 86 million barrels a day this year.

But even with the lowered demand forecast, the agency warned that the period of lower prices may not last as producers fail to increase oil supplies to meet the developing world’s rising needs. It expects prices to average more than $100 a barrel through 2015, and possibly rise to $200 a barrel by 2030.

Credit Suisse Oil Forecast

The wildcard in global oil markets is China—and a looming economic slowdown there threatens to send global oil consumption backward next year for the first time since 1982.

That’s the take from Credit Suisse, which just slashed its 2009 crude oil forecast for the second time in a month. The bank now expects $60 oil next year, down from its recent estimate of $75, and oil at just $80 a barrel in 2010. That’s because China’s economy—especially the workshops on the coast—is taking a beating from the global economic slowdown, and that will elminate any fresh Chinese demand for oil next year.

Credit Suisse analysts forecast Chinese growth below 7% for the next three quarters, “the lowest levels of economic growth in China for many years.”



Rick Rule Oil Forecast

The oil price will go lower, the natural gas price will go lower. That will happen for a couple of reasons. The institutional investors who have taken speculative or hedge positions in those energy markets are out of money. They will be sellers; they will not be buyers. Reduced economic activity means reduced demand for energy. That one’s a no-brainer.

Looking a little bit further ahead, however, these are extraordinarily attractive businesses. They’re extraordinarily attractive businesses, again, perversely because of governments. Most oil in the world, strangely, is not controlled by oil companies. People think, if you read the popular media, that the world oil prices and the world oil supply is controlled by people like Shell and Exxon, British Petroleum, but that’s not the case. Most oil in the world is controlled by national oil companies and the governments that run the national oil companies do as good a job running the national oil companies as they do their societies.

And let’s look at the national oil companies, let’s look at the countries that they run: Iran, Mexico, Venezuela, Indonesia, Russia—not much cause for optimism. In fact, what occurs on a global basis with these national companies is that these national oil companies divert most of their free cash flows to the governments for social expenditures. In fact, every country that I’ve mentioned uses the free cash flow from the oil and gas business to subsidize domestic gasoline and energy consumption meaning that they are encouraging domestic consumption.


What is happening is that so much of the cash flow in these national oil companies is going to domestic and social expenditure that not enough of it is being reinvested in the oil and gas business. So, the production in these countries is really in terminal decline. It is my belief that in a three to five year timeframe and maybe sooner, several countries, which are prominent oil exporters, will no longer have oil for sale in world markets. I believe this will happen in Venezuela; I believe this will happen in Mexico. I believe this will happen in Indonesia. It may occur, surprisingly in Iran. The interesting thing about that is that those four countries control about 25% of the world’s supply of export crude. If you take 25% out of the world’s export crude supplies, you do an awfully strange thing to the oil price. And I think this is going to happen; I don’t think it may happen. I think it is going to happen. That will be very interesting.

Goldman Sachs Oil Forecast

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s commodity research analysts said in a report yesterday the ``downside risk'' to its year-end forecast of $70 a barrel for crude oil prices has increased amid signs of slowing emerging market demand.

Societe Generale Oil Forecast

Societe Generale SA, France's third-largest bank, slashed its 2009 oil forecast by more than $40 a barrel, its second reduction in a month. It lowered its projection for average prices in New York next year by 36 percent to $72.50 a barrel in a report yesterday, citing tumbling demand and the flight of financial investors from the commodities sector.

Martin King Oil Forecast

Yes, the oil market is ugly right now -- “We are projecting that global demand will contract by about 30,000 barrels per day in 2008, the first such decline since 1985,” the First Energy analyst said but it is going to get better soon.

“We think the biggest mistake that many on the Street are making is to have become far too negative on demand prospects in the medium-term and, more importantly, grossly overestimating the buoyancy of supply in 2009 and beyond"

Crude oil will pop back up to US$80 to US$90 per barrel in the second quarter of 2009, with “real potential” to return to triple digits in the second half of the year or maybe sooner.

“We see the wave of negative sentiment for oil demand as having gone too far for too long, and that the market has lost focus on many of the demand positives that have begun to emerge. We do not expect things to really get much worse than current near-term levels.”

Every news that may move the oil prices can be found here in the Oil Traders Blog. A must read website for every oil trader.

Forecasts for oil prices from the industry experts like Boone Pickens, Jim Rogers, IEA, OPEC, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs and many others.

Is oil going up or down? Find out here and profit from it.

The fall in oil prices is temporary, Chavez says


The fall in oil prices is temporary and will rebound because of high demand, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said.

Chavez cited a report from the International Energy Agency released this week saying oil-import prices will average $100 a barrel between 2008 and 2015 and that the threat of a ``supply crunch'' remains.

``These are circumstances we are living,'' Chavez said in comments broadcast on state television last night. ``The world will increasingly need more energy.''

What does Chavez know about the future price of Oil? Zipps.

OPEC may cut further


OPEC president Chakib Khelil reportedly said on Saturday that further cuts in oil output from the OPEC nations could be on the way if attempts last month to reduce production fail to halt the current plunge in crude prices.

Follow every oil piece of news here on the Oil Traders Blog. Outlook from the top oil investors from around the world. Where is oil heading? Find out here.

Jim Rogers Outlook on Oil


Rogers: "Whether oil costs 45 or 145 dollars, it doesn’t really matter. What does matter is that with oil, like with many other commodities, supply is decreasing while demand is increasing. In the long run this will result in a considerable increase in prices."

"The question is not if the price of a barrel of oil will increase again, but how expensive a barrel of oil will be eventually?"

"The oil supply will fall with 6 to 9 per cent each year, according to the IAE. The demand for oil will increase in China and developing countries. This has nothing to do with economy, the market is simple. It is simply the law of supply and demand."

In this blog you can track every oil forecast and comment from every oil speculator, trader or oil executive. All information a trader needs to profit from the oil moves.

IEA predicts oil price to rebound to USD 100 a barrel


International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that crude oil prices will recover to more than 100 dollars a barrel as soon as the economomies around the world recover and will top 200 dollars in 20 years time.

The report said that market imbalances could temporarily cause prices to fall back, due to slowing cyclical demand. Its World Energy Outlook has come to this conclusion largely because it believes companies will struggle to pump enough new oil to offset the steep production declines of the world’s older fields.

The industry will have to invest USD 350 billion each year until 2030 to counter the steep rates of decline of existing fields and find enough extra oil to satisfy the growing demand of countries such as China.

The agency found that output from the world oil fields is declining at a natural rate of 9% per year. This decline rate is curtailed to 6.7% when current investments to boost production are made. However, even with such investments, the decline rate worsens significantly to 8.6% by 2030.

The declining rates are steeper than the industry had previously assumed. They are also slightly steeper than an earlier draft of the report because the IEA has expanded the study to 800 oil fields, adding 250 smaller fields.

The stark assessment comes as companies cancel projects from Kazakhstan to Canada because the collapse in oil prices makes them uneconomical.

Oil supply won`t grow as much as needed in the next few years and when demand picks up, prices will skyrocket again. As Merrill Lynch used to say "Be Bullish".

What are oil futures?

Futures contracts are financial instruments and carry with them legally binding obligations. Buyer and seller have the obligation to take or make delivery of an underlying instrument at a specified settlement date in the future. Oil futures are part of the derivatives family of financial products as their value 'derives' from the underlying instrument. These contracts are standardised in terms of quality, quantity and settlement dates.

There are futures markets for a number of instruments ranging across currencies, bonds, equities, interest rates and commodities.

In the case of crude oil, the main futures exchanges are the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) where West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and North Sea Brent crude oil are traded respectively.

These exchanges trade what is referred to as 'light- sweet' crude oil and a single contract, or 'lot', calls for the purchase or sale of 1,000 barrels of oil. Traders can buy and sell oil for delivery several months or years ahead.

The bulk of activity in commodity futures markets is typically concentrated on oil for delivery in the next three months. However, in the past five years, activity has increased substantially for deliveries much further into the future as more investors put money into commodity indices.


Every time an election is held for any office, the subject of ANWR Drilling, America’s dependence on petroleum and the politics of oil and gas eventually comes up in discussion. To understand the debate the overall issue of Anwr and the impacts of drilling there must be clearly understood. Why? Because the issue of climate change, oil exploration and the future of the United States and the world are at stake. What are the real pros and cons of drilling in ANWR? ALASKAN OIL DRILINGANWR is the name given to 19 million acres on Alaska’s North Slope – the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. In 1960 the government named it a protected area and has added even more land since then.