20 year chart of gold to oil ratio:
"The lower and upper horizontal bands in the chart above show an oz of gold has exchanged between 22 and 10 barrels of oil since 1989. The ratio dipped to as low as 7 and right now it trades at 20. One shouldn't buck against the trend and I expect the ratio to exceed 20 to reach perhaps 30 or more.
You can play with two of the three variables (oil, gold, and ratio) and come up with the third. For example, at ratio of 30 and oil price of $50/barrel, the formula produces a gold price of $1,500/oz. I honestly have no idea what future lies, except
- Oil is oversold and cheap
- Gold is not expensive by historic means
- The gold-to-oil ratio will keep rising until it comes down.
- Fundamentally gold is attractive as investment of last resort. It's no good to leave money at the banks earning zero interest, or buy real estate that is faltering, or invest in equity market during recession.
While gold's blow-off phase is yet to come, I like to offer a word of caution. Given how quickly things can change, it might soon be a good idea to hedge gold positions by going long oil." in Seeking Alpha
0 comments:
Post a Comment