US Natural Gas Fund Cannot Issue More Shares Without Authorization

This was the reason UNG was suspended earlier today,"The United States Natural Gas Fund will temporarily suspend issuing new shares pending regulatory approval to expand the number of shares it can issue to 1.2 billion, the company said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday.The U.S. Natural Gas fund , also known as UNG, filed on June 5 with the SEC for permission to issue 1 billion new units, adding to...

Volume Is Anemic In The US Stock Market

Bespoke has a very interesting article on the anemic volume of the US stck market, "Using the S&P 500 tracking ETF (SPY) as a proxy, the 50-day average dollar value of volume in the ETF has declined by 54% since its peak last Fall. It is also currently at its lowest level since the S&P 500 peaked in October 2007."In the graph below we can see the drop...

Good Trading Quote From The Book I am Reading

I really enjoyed this passage from Curtis Faith in the "Way Of The Turtle", "Good trading is not about being right, it is about trading right. If you want to be sucessful, you need to think of the long run and ignore the outcome of individual trades".Very good material.Petroleum Oil Gas info Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpa...

Great Trading Book: "Way Of The Turtle"

This weekend I re-read the "Way Of The Turtle" while I was lying around the swimming pool. The "Way Of The Turtle" is a fantastic trading book from Curtis Faith, one of the original turtles. I read it last year but I really enjoyed this re-read. Perhaps because I am doing a lot of systematic, system generated trades these days.Trading coach Van K. Tharp considered it one of the best five trading books ever written and I agree with him....

Oil Had Its Biggest Quarterly Rise In 19 Years

Nymex Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures jumped 41 percent in the second quarter, the biggest since 1990.This rise was not driven by demand at all. This is the reason why some many great traders were caught on the short side of this trade. Petroleum Oil Gas info Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpa...

Bad Economic Data. 2 Good Trades.

The economic data released today was quite disappointing. Both the Chicago PMI and the Consumer Confidence Data printed below expectations.I have made 2 good trades today, one short Crude Oil Futures trade from 71.00 to 70.50 and one short trade on the EURO Currency Futures from 1.4100 to 1.4050. They were both mechanical trades generated by a system I have developed.I will not trade any discretionary plays until Enzo is born, and he can...

Latest Hugh Hendry Interview

Latest Hugh Hendry`s interview. Hugh is my favourite money manager but he has been completely wrong footed since March. He was on CNBC earlier today."Fears about inflation and hyperinflation could create another economic downturn, bigger than the one the world went through, Hugh Hendry, chief investment officer at hedge fund Eclectica, told CNBC Tuesday." in CNBCUse Internet Explorer or Google Chrome browsers to watch this video. Mozilla...

IEA Cuts Oil Demand Through 2013

The IEA, has cut five-year forecasts for global crude demand because of the economic slump, predicting that consumption will not regain last year’s levels until 2012.The IEA cut its oil demand estimates for every year through 2013 by about 3 million barrels a day, stating that consumption will average 86.76 million barrels a day in 2012, the first year it will rise above 2008’s level of 85.76 million barrels a day.“The deep economic recession...

Taking A Trading Vacation.

After having a fantastic start to the year these last few weeks have been rather difficult. I got trapped on the short side of the oil market and I was only able to do some good S&P Futures trading and two other good trades on Natural Gas and on the 2 Year Schatz Futures on the ECB meeting day.But I am feeling out of sync with the markets and a bit tired. I have closed all my trading positions and I will do a small trading vacation....

Buzz On The Oil Trading Desks

Oil trading desks are a busy place. Today the talk was about economic news, Iran, stock market and hope:"Any shred of decent economic news gives bulls a positive reinforcement while bears continue to shake their heads. Hope has been a big factor in the oil market in the past two months." Andy Lebow, senior vice president for energy at brokerage MF Global"The market got a little support from the stock market and consolidated its recent gains,"...

ENI`s CEO Says Demand Is Not Behind This Rally

The rise in oil prices this year has not been caused by a rise in demand, the head of Italian energy firm ENI said on Wednesday. "I don't see the consumption, I don't see the reason why oil prices should move up again," ENI Chief Executive Paolo Scaroni told reporters during a presentation about mechanisms to reduce volatility in the oil market.I am still short Nymex Crude Oil Futures but I was able to reduce some positions when oil traded...

G8 Finance Minister Says Extra Liquidity Is Fueling Oil Speculation

"Italy's finance minister Saturday expressed concern that the big stimulus used by the Group of Eight leading economies to fight the recession was already recreating the kind of financial speculation that was at the root of the economic crisis.Giulio Tremonti told a news conference at the end of a meeting of G8 finance ministers that financial speculation had returned, especially in oil markets, where prices have recently risen sharply,...

What Is Driving The Oil Market?

A look at this week's energy inventory data, with Ray Carbone, Paramount Options. Ray explains what is driving this market. Very interesti...

Is The Market Topping? Guerrilla Trading.

It was a very stressful day, holding a big short S&P position. I got scared a few times with the several rally attempts but the S&P`s ended the day flat. Bull forces were still at work for the most part of the trading session.I did some guerrilla trades like buying EUR/USD for a 30 ticks profit and some Nasdaq`s for a quick scalp after 2pm in the afternoon NY time, the "institutional prime time hour for buying". So the trading day...

Less Oil, More S&P`s

I closed half of my short oil position and added the S&P Futures that I closed last Friday at 910. Now I have re-shorted them at 936.50, almost 25 points higher in less then 24 hours. I think the stock market will probably have a bigger sell-off then oil.I am short with a pretty big position on the S&P Futures. I think the time is right.Keep a close eye on the long term bonds today. They may sell off again and push the stock market...

Oil Rises 30% in May. Biggest Gain in 10 Years.

Oil prices have risen roughly 30 percent this month — their biggest monthly gain in 10 years. This is a good example of an overbought market becoming more and more overbought disregarding conditions. Profit taking and fundamentals will send this overbought down for a big correction soon and then I will be able to quote Jesse Livermore, "But I can tell you after the market began to go my way I felt for the first time in my life that I had...

Exxon`s CEO Comments On Oil Prices

"The recent run-up in crude prices to $60-plus from under $40 earlier this year isn’t necessarily evidence that the economy is recovering", Exxon Mobil Chairman and CEO Rex Tillerson said Wednesday."Oil demand remains down while supply is robust amid the lingering global recession, so those fundamentals don’t support crude’s slow uptick."The weak dollar and “green shoots” — initial signs of a stabilizing economy and market momentum — could...

S&P`s Selling Off. Reacting to Bonds

it looks like the S&P Futures are selling off, reacting to the weakness in the long term bonds. Yields are surging and that will affect the stock market. Let`s see how this unfolds. We can have a major sell-off on the S&P Futures.When I first posted, the S&P was at 905. Its trading at 897 now. We can have a brutal sell-off. Fasten your seat belts. I have added slightly to my shorts with XLF.Petroleum Oil Gas info Blog is a website...

I Always Like Listening To Cashin

This guy has been doing this forever. I always like to watch him. One of the only guys worth listening to on CNBC TV. Petroleum Oil Gas info Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to ...

Trading Superstitions

I do not have many superstitions. I don`t even have faith or religion, I have the absence of belief in the existence of deities.But I have my little market superstitions. For instance when I wake up and positions are running against me, or I have big positions on the market and I am expecting a very volatile day, I always dress up to the occasion. I mean, I wear my best suit, and one of by best ties. In these days only Hugo Boss, Cerruti...

Buy On Weakness, Sell On Strength

There is no better feeling then being bearish, closing a short position within a few ticks of the low and shorting again near the highs of the session. I was inspired today, and read the market pretty well in the morning. Now I am short again, at 905 but sitting on the profits I have made so far this month. I am still bearish, I think the consumer confidence was influenced by the green shoots that the media has been shouting about and because...

Long Weekend. Time To Think, Reflect and Re-Energise.

Long weekend. Trading will only restart on Tuesday because of the Memorial Day. I was just re-reading one my favourite trading books, Pit Bull. Its written by a self made trader, Martin "Buzzy" Schwartz.Its fun reading and you can also learn a thing or two. I will just post here some of my favourite quotes from this book,"The market does not know if you are long or short and could not care less.You are the only one emotional involved with...

Bonds Are Selling Off. S&P`s Can Be Crushed.

I think I will make a ton with this short S&P position. Bonds are selling off, that will prompt some selling in equities.Can we see some panic selling? Maybe.Petroleum Oil Gas info Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to ...

Oil is Overbought

Bespoke have just posted their commodity snapshot in their website. Oil is way overbought. "The green shading in the charts represents between 2 standard deviations above and below the commodity's 50-day moving average. When the price moves outside of this range, the commodity is considered either overbought or oversold. As shown below, oil has rallied nicely...

Oil Futures Are Printing Red. My Favourite Color

Crude Oil Futures are printing red in my interactive Brokers trading plataform. That is the way I like it. Its the sound of cash coming in. The US Dollar is strong today and that is definitely a plus for my position. We can have a 2 to 3 dollars move in the oil futures contra...

Still Short Oil. Invite Your SO to Dinner.

Today I rolled over my June Crude Oil Future to July. The July contract will be the most active from today.Oil Futures have been a lot stronger then I expected. I attribute that to the upbeat sentiment in equities and in risky assets in general. But as I said before underlying conditions are bound to prevail and reality will set in and lower prices will follow.Will it be here and now? Will it be 5 dollars higher? I don`t know.Even though...

Tired of CNBC Commentators

I am really enjoying this project.I am tired of those CNBC and Bloomberg commentators that always say they make everything right. I think that only about 20% of them are really profitable and only about 5% of them could live only the money they make trading their accounts. When I trade I post. If I get burned maybe we can all learn something from that trade. When I win, I´ll show you the mindset that leads to good trades and the merits...

I am Bored. Let`s Make a Trade

Quiet trading day. I made a very small intraday play (completely out of my usual style) in FITB. A typical "go with the (institutional) flow" kind of trade that I make when I don`t have anything else to do. That position is out of the money, but its only a chicken`s feed position. I think I did it mainly because I was bored. I will tell about how that trade turns out in the end of the day.I am still short oil with a big position, as I am...

Still Short Oil, Commodities About to Roll Over

Crude Oil fell today shrugging the good news that came out on the Inventories Data. Art Cashin spoke today about a false dawn in commodities that started when the chinese announced their stimulus plan and I agree with him. Commodities are about to roll over.I always like to listen to Art Cashin. He is practical and insightful.So, I am still short NYMEX Crude Oil Futures and I expect them to hit the low fifties in the next few trading sessions....

What a Great Trading Day

What a great trading day. As I said in the last post I was having a tough month after a fantastic trading performance in April.Have you ever heard that its better to be lucky than smart? Well, today I feel both lucky and smart. I closed my short S&P Futures position at 896, pretty close to the lows of the session. I lost 2 full points in the contracts that I was carrying, but it was enough to put be back in the plus column for this...

US Dollar Weakness Impacting My Short Oil Position

The US Dollar is extremely weak again in this early trading. I think this is the biggest threat for my oil short position today.How this dollar weakness is going to affect stocks and bonds, I am not sure yet. But this is a very big move in a few days and that video about the off balance sheet losses by the Federal Reserve is one of the reasons behind this move.It seems like I will have added pain in the oil position but I am not sure about...

I am Fading This Rally in Risk

I am fading this rally in risk that has been going on for the last 9 weeks and I am short S&P Futures and NYMEX Crude Oil Futures.The futures are green early on, but I think markets yesterday began reversal that will lead us to a correction in the S&P. Oil is rallying in Globex and is trading over 59.40 dollars a barrel.After a fantastic month of April, where my personal account appreciated over 40% I am having a tough month in...

It Turned Out to Be a Good Trading Day

It turned out to be a pretty good trading day. My big S&P Futures short position gained a few points and my NYMEX Crude Oil Futures ended the session in the money. I think I will make over 5 full points in the Crude Oil Futures short position over the next few trading session. As I said before, the Supply / Demand situation is not compatible with an almost 60 dollar a barrel oil. In the S&P Futures short position I am off the money...

Futures Are Red. My Favourite Color When I am Short.

After a persistent sequence of green days it seems like we will see some red today. I love red whenever I am short. I am even wearing a red tie today. Everything helps.I am short S&P futures and and I am short June Oil Futures again at 58.58 USD. The market is extremely overbought and everyone who bought in the last few days are going to witness pain. I expect a major correction here.The quote of the day goes to George Soros, one of...

I am Going To Short Oil Again

After a very good run, this month is being a bit tough. I have shorted the S&P Futures several times for a profit in April, but in May my short position is 30 points off the money.My view is that the market is overbought, the market sentiment is almost hysterical. Things will slowdown for sure and this week the market will probably correct somewhat. I am planning to short oil futures again early this week. The demand / supply situation...

Carrying a Losing Trade Into the Weekend

S&P is strong after the Employment Report, it seems like I will go with my positions off the money to the weekend. I am short at 894, losing almost 30 full points in my futures contracts. The S&P Futures are up over 40% from their low early March. Everybody is bullish now, especially on CNBC. I am expecting a big and dramatic pullback on the market that might take the S&P 500 to the low 800`s. I am carrying a big short line...

Stress Test Fireworks. Still Short S&P

Stress Test fireworks impacting the futures early on. I am still short S&P Futures and waiting for a severe correction.Jobs Data are a threat. ADP early in the week came better than expected and the data will cause volatility. Even though I think the market will end the day lower no matter what the jobs number is going to be.I closed my crude oil short position with a 2 full points gain in the NYMEX Oil Futures. I don`t want to go overextended...

Oil Is Up Over 70% in 3 Months

Oil has been moving sharply higher over the last couple of weeks, and it is now up 71.15% over the last 3 months. A move of this magnitude in any other market would normally be getting front-page headlines, sparking fears that energy prices would "break the back of the consumer." But since the consumer's back is already supposedly broken, nobody seems to care -- yet. But rest assured that a continued increase in prices at the pump will...

I am Short Oil and S&P Futures: Rally in Risk Is Coming To an End

Benchmark U.S. crude oil futures held steady near 57 dollars a barrel Thursday in Asia after a round of short covering from traders in Japan, who returned from the Golden Week break.Sentiment continued to find support from surging regional equity markets, amid renewed confidence in the outlook for the global economy, or so says the Press.I think its time to sell Oil short and to sell short all risky assets. The rally in risk we have seen...

Oil Inventories Rose Less Than Expected

Crude-oil futures rose Wednesday after government data showed U.S. crude inventories rose less than expected last week. Crude inventories increased by 600,000 barrels in the week ended May 1, the Energy Information Administration reported.Oil Futures are trading up 4% nearing 56 dollars a barrel on Nymex. I think its a good time to short oil. oil has benefited from stronger risk appetite and uptrending equity markets, but the supply and...

Oil is Getting Overbought

Which commodities are overbought and which are oversold?I found this analysis on the Bespoke Investment Group website. They usually post some interesting research on their website."The green shading represents between 2 standard deviations above and below the commodity's 50-day moving average. When the price moves outside of this green shading, the commodity...

How Are Commodity Futures Performing YTD?

Petroleum Oil Gas info Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrad...

Buffett Still Skeptic on Recovery

“There’s no signs of any real bounce at all in anything to do with housing, retailing, all that sort of thing,” said Warren Buffett in a Bloomberg Television interview before the Omaha, Nebraska-based company’s annual shareholder meeting this weekend.“You never know for sure, even if there’s a leveling off, which way the next move will be.”Petroleum Oil Gas info Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research...

Shorting Oil on Rallies

The presence of a huge inventory overhang and continued bearish inventory dynamics in the U.S. suggests prices might well remain stuck in the current range or trade down from these levels. I am shorting oil on rallies.Petroleum Oil Gas info Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrad...

Abby Joseph Cohen: S&P May Jump 20% in 6 Months

The S&P 500 may jump 20 percent to 1,050 over the next six to 12 months as investors buy stocks trading at low valuations, said Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s senior investment strategist.“You could see the market sustain at these levels,” Cohen, 57, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “We’re going to set a new trading range much higher than the trading range in February and March.”I don`t agree. I think the market is...

Will Swine Flu Impact Travel?

Crude oil futures climbed back into positive territory Wednesday in Asia as regional share markets turned higher, although traders remained cautious ahead of weekly U.S. government data that could show fundamentals staying weak.The federal Energy Information Administration is expected to post further increases in the country's crude and distillate stockpiles, potentially dousing hopes for an early recovery in demand.Sentiment also remained...

Hugh Hendry Video Interview on CNBC

Hugh Hendry is my favourite investor on CNBC. I always like to watch his videos, and he always has some good ideas. Petroleum Oil Gas info Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrad...

Latest Hugh Hendry CNBC Interview

The recent rise in stocks and talk about green shoots in the markets are optimistic assumptions, as the world downturn "still has a way to run," Hugh Hendry, Chief Investment Officer at Eclectica, told CNBC Tuesday.World gross domestic product looks overestimated, because global consumption has been based on debt, and this cannot continue, Hendry told "Squawk Box Europe.""In the last five weeks we had a rally in risk. Big deal," he said."I...

Swine Flu Impacts Oil

Crude Oil Futures traded lower Tuesday amid concerns that the swine flu outbreak would curb oil demand.Light, sweet crude for June delivery traded $1.25, or 2.5%, lower at $48.89 a barrel the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange traded $1.14 lower at $49.18 a barrel.Commodities and equities are falling worldwide as investors prepare for the possibility that the swine flu outbreak will become serious enough...

Oil Futures At a 2 Week High

Crude oil prices surged nearly 2 dollars a barrel in the last trading day of last week to settle at a 2 week high. Oil futures benefited from the strength in the stock market and the weak dollar.Crude Oil Futures for June delivery on the NYMEX settled up 1.93 at 51.55 dollars a barrel, the highest level since April 9.Petroleum Oil Gas info Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and...