Oil Consensus for 2009, 2010, 2011

These are the consensus for Oil Prices for the end of 2008 and 2009:The median estimate for the end of this quarter remains at $66, which is more than $20 above the current price of oil. (...) For the end of the first quarter, analysts are collectively looking for a price of $64. By the end of Q3 '09, analysts expect oil to be at $71.5. Expectations are for...

China Uses Less Oil

IEA said that the Chinese economy is slowing, according to diverse indicators on manufacturing, power generation, retail sales and trade. The growth in passenger car sales has virtually stalled since last summer, after rising at double digit rates for several years in a row. China’s industrial production grew at the weakest pace in almost a decade as export growth collapsed. Output rose 5.4 percent in November from a year earlier, the statistics...

Word on the Pits

"The global economy is so ghastly that there have to be further declines. We could see oil prices between $10 and $20 a barrel. It's going to be ugly," said Verleger, a professor at the University of Calgary's Haskayne School of Business."I don't think it has bottomed out yet," said John Kingston, global director of oil for Platts, an energy information company."We might test $50 a barrel and maybe get to $55 a barrel, but it won't last,...

Oil Rises on Obama 1 Trillion Package

Rumors about the size of Barack Obama`s stimulus package sent oil prices higher this morning. People familiar with this matter say that the stimulus package may reach 1 trillion dollars versus the half trillion considered just 2 weeks ago. This is very bullish for crude oil prices beacause its a very inflationary measure and is a possible real stimulus for a very depressed economy.Obama has said the package will include an initial tax cut...

OPEC pressures Russia to Cut Production

Saudi Arabia said OPEC will cut oil production by about 2,000,000 barrels a day. Saudi oil minister Ali Naimi said “supply is still somewhat in excess of demand” and global stockpiles are higher than normal.OPEC is pressing Russia and other producers outside the cartel to cut production by 600,000 barrels a day. “Russia is an important country and we expect it to reduce 400,000 barrels a day to support OPEC’s decision,” OPEC’s secretary...

Iran wants 100 dollar Oil

Iran's oil minister said he considered the "real price" for a barrel of crude should be more than $100 and a senior Iranian official said OPEC needed to cut oversupply from the market, Iranian media reported on Saturday.This is what is call Wishful Thinking. But where will oil go from here? In the short term it may rebound a little further benefiting from the dollar weakne...

Goldman Sachs lowers Oil Outlook

Goldman Sachs, one of the largest energy traders in the markets, loewred its 2009 price forecast for crude oil to 45 dollars a barrel. Goldman Sachs last estimate for 09 was 40% higher."We revise down our 2009-2011 crude oil price forecasts in view of a more severe than expected deterioration in oil demand globally," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote on the report.Goldman predicts that crude oil futures will trade at an average of 30 dollars...

Crude Oil Plunges on Auto Bailout Failure

Oil futures fell 6 percent Friday after rallying more than 10% yesterday.The reason for this fall is the failure of the Auto Bailout in the Senate. Crude oil futures for January delivery fell 2.92, or 6%, to 45 a barrel in electronic trading on Glob...

Global oil consumption will drop this year for the first time since 1983

Global oil consumption will be less than last year`s for the first time since 1983. The economic slowdown in the US and in Europe and slower growth in China cuts gasoline and oil demand, according to IEA.The IEA projects world demand to fall by 200,000 barrels per day to 85.8 mln barrels a day during 2008. This forecast is 350,000 barrels a day less than IEA`s...

Oil’s Implied Volatility Rises to 22-Year High

We have seen hige volatility in every market including oil. Options show the highest volatility in oil since 1986.“Even though prices have fallen dramatically, we’re still seeing daily ranges that are $3, $4, $5 a barrel, which is not that different from the daily ranges we were seeing at $130 a barrel,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in New Yo...

Russia may also Cut Production

Faced with falling oil prices, Russia is preparing to announce that it will work with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to coordinate a reduction in output, the minister of energy said Wednesday. This is the first time that the Kremlin has offered to reduce output. Russia announced that by December 17, the date of the next scheduled OPEC meeting, Russia will announce a plan to reduce the country’s oil production. Mr....

Short Squeeze in Action

THe short squeeze I`ve predicted here 3 days ago is under way helped by a weaker dollar and a better stock market sentiment. Russia is preparing to announce that it will work with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to coordinate a reduction in output. That is positive news flow and is also helping. Oil can continue its upmove to 50 USD a barrel...

Can Oil Hold 40 USD?

Crude oil rose as traders bought contracts to close out bets that prices will fall and on signs that OPEC will cut production at a meeting next week.OPEC may cut its output by 2,5 million barrels a day to support oil prices, billionaire hedge-fund manager Boone Pickens said. Traders who were short, or betting that prices would fall, are purchasing futures and closing their positions after oil dropped more than 20% in the past two weeks.“It...

Oil Supply/Demand Fundamentals

According to the IEA world oil demand growth is expected to slow to an average of 86.3 mln barrels per day during 2009 down from earlier forecasts that approached 87 mln barrels per day.Oil Supply is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.2% and expected to hit 87 mln bpd in 2009, which is less than the previous forecast for global supply growth of 1.6% per annum. However going forward demand from developed countries is expected to continue...

Word on the Pits

Word on the Pits:What are the Oil Traders saying?“Commodities rise is more equity influence than anything else,” Kevin Tuohy a trader at MF Global “It’s still too early to say whether the rebound is a dead-cat bounce or that commodities have found a base.” Kevin Tuohy a trader at MF Global “The oil price is now on the brink of an abyss,” Tetsu Emori, Tokyo-based...

Oil: Major Short Squeeze Around the Corner?

Crude oil just had the biggest weekly drop since the Persian Gulf War in 1991; since November 28 alone, oil is down 25 percent. Quite a drop.The sentiment in the oil pits is that “It’s all about the economy” and “There’s not much that can be done right now to keep prices from falling off a cliff”. Major pessimism is set in and Merrill Lynch is even predicting 25 dollar oil.For all that I can see, conditions are set for a major short squeeze...

OPEC might Cut Production Agressively

Chakib Khelil OPEC`s president stated that a production cut will probably be made on the December 17 meeting. OPEC`s President commented that no decision on the output cut has been made yet but it would be severe. The problem for OPEC producers is that nobody really believes they will cut production because they all need to sell all the oil they can to balance their national budgets. Oil analysts predict that an OPEC might cut by as much...

Biggest weekly drop since the Persian Gulf War in 1991

Crude oil fell for a sixth day, capping the biggest weekly drop since the Persian Gulf War in 1991.Oil is down 25 percent since November 28. The International Energy Agency, U.S. Energy Department and OPEC lowered demand forecasts over the past month because of the contraction. “It’s all about the economy,” said Christopher Edmonds, the managing principal of FIG Partners Energy Research & Capital Group in Atlanta. “There’s not much...

Merrill Lynch predicts 25 USD / Barrel

Crude oil may dip below $25 a barrel next year if the recession that’s slashing fuel demand around the world spreads to China, Merrill Lynch & Co. said. This is the most bearish call I have seen in a while. But the sentiment in the oil pits is so dark that oil traded lower today even with a falling doll...

Oil Crashes

Oil futures are still down substantially. Oil is now down 5% to $44.44 per barrel. That marks crude's lowest intraday level in nearly four years.Merrill Lynch predicts 25 dollar oil next year. What about th...

OPEC President: There is no "floor" for the price

There is no "floor" for the price for a barrel of oil, OPEC president Chakib Khelil said Wednesday as the price of crude tumbled under 45 dollars, its lowest level since February 2005."Prices can drop to a very, very low level, it depends on supply and demand conditions, inventory levels, and also the future of global economic growth," he said during an interview with Spanish public radio RNE.Major productions cuts will be annouced, but...

Inventories Falls: Can Oil Rally?

Pit traders are looking for 50 dollars a barrel later today.Day high: 48.10Day Low: 46.26(after EIA data)Is it time for a major short sque...

Oil Rises From 3-Year Low as OPEC Signals Plan to Cut

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries intends to reduce oil output on December 17 in Algeria, Qatar’s Oil Minister said today. The U.S. Energy Department releases its weekly report on fuel inventories later today.“I’m very sure OPEC will cut on Dec. 17, it has to be at least 1 million barrels a day,” said Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich in Vienna. “Prices are at a very low level, well below the...

Oil Falls to 3-Year Low

Crude oil fell to the lowest in more than three years on signs the U.S., the world’s largest energy consumer, may be in the longest slump since World War II.“Demand is going down from week to week, hand-in-hand with the worldwide slowdown in economic growth,” said Gerrit Zambo, an oil trader at BayernLB in Munich.“If sentiment gets worse and equities move lower...

OPEC ends Cairo meeting without announcing new cuts in crude output

OPEC held off on announcing new oil output cuts on Saturday, but its alarm over falling demand and a slumping economy potentially laid the groundwork for a big reduction when it meets again in a matter of weeks.Where is oil heading this week? Down to 50 or higher to 60 U...

Global demand for oil will rebound in 2010-2011

Global demand for oil will rebound in 2010-2011 and prices may then exceed their peak levels of July 2008, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.In July U.S. crude oil prices reached a record high above $147 a barrel but have since dropped and were trading below $54 on Thursday."We can see almost every day that projects are being cancelled (due to the financial crisis) and this is bad news (...) as...

Oil down to 53 USD

"It looks like $50 is a support level," said Gerard Rigby, an energy analyst with Fuel First Consulting in Sydney. "But when it gets up to $54, people take profits. No one wants to get too bullish."Prices have fluctuated between about $50 and $54 a barrel this week as investors grapple with the impact the global economic slowdown will have on crude dema...

ENI CEO says Oil may go down a little more

Oil prices could fall further, Italian oil company Eni SpA's chief executive officer, Paolo Scaroni, was quoted as saying on Saturday. 'I think for a little while yes,' Italian news agency ANSA quoted Scaroni saying on the sidelines of an event when asked whether oil prices would fall further. 'It depends on what OPEC will decide ... in Cairo.' Oil has been...

IEA bearish on OIL

Oil prices are set to remain under downward pressure next year as a weak global economy hits demand with worries for investment projects, the International Energy Agency's (IEA) chief economist said on Thursday."I think there will definitely be downward pressure on the prices next year," the IEA's Fatih Birol told a news conference during a visit to Dublin. "The economic situation will have an impact on the demand and therefore on the prices."Is...

Oil Capitulation

Oil prices fell to their lowest level in more than three years, dropping below $50 a barrel on Thursday, after shedding close to $100 since July as an ailing global economy pared consumption. The sudden reversal has startled many experts. Oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $49.62 a barrel, down 7 percent, their lowest since May 2005....

Crude Oil Heading Into Severe Oversold Territory

Crude Oil Heading Into Severe Oversold Territory By Mike Paulenoff, http://www.mptrader.com/Yesterday's break in crude oil and downside follow-through from the 7-year trendline at $61.60 to new bear-market lows at $56.35 has accelerated into a new downleg that is pointed right for a test of the Jan 2007 low of $49.90 next. Such a decline represents another 12%...

Oil Keeps Falling

Oil slipped below $54 a barrel Wednesday as stock markets across the globe fell and yet another U.S. government report illustrated the disarray in the housing market.Light, sweet crude for December delivery fell 77 cents to settle at $53.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, about where prices were in January of 2007.The dollar reversed course and traded up during the day, putting pressure on crude oil. Is this the time to test...

LONG OIL?

Dollar is weak today, Oil Inventories will be released >>> Good Day to Enter LONG OIL!!Maybe it will have some wind on its ba...

Crude Oil Falls to 22-Month Low

Crude Oil Falls to 22-Month Low in New York on Demand Concerns. This is the lowest price on a active contract since January 30, 2007. When will this trend reverse? Maybe a 50 USD testing might be needed before we see a decent oil rally.Oil Inventories will be released tomorrowCrude oil stockpiles probably climbed 1 mln barrels last week, according to Bloomberg....

Bloomberg: Oil is Down Again

Oil fell for a second day as Japan entered its first recession since 2001 and China's largest crude producer said demand had declined ``sharply.''Oil rebounded temporarily when a supertanker owned by Saudi Aramco was hijacked by pirates off the coast of Kenya. OPEC slashed its 2009 demand forecast for a third month as the looming global recession threatens fuel...

Oil falls to 56 USD

Oil prices fell on Monday to 56 dollars a barrel despite the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said it was ready to intervene on a regular basis to help prop up the market.Prices in London last week slumped to three-and-a-half-year lows close to 50 dollars, prompting the OPEC exporters' cartel to call an emergency meeting to discuss a mooted...

Pickens on Oil: "I don't see any lower than it is today"

But Pickens said not to worry, oil prices will be heading back up and soon."I don't see any lower than it is today", Boone Pickens said yesterday. He`s been wrong lately but he is an oil man and has been more right than wrong in the past.He said that oil will be back to $100 a barrel within a year and that all other commodities will jump back up as we...

Oil Falls Again. Going to 50 USD/ Barrel?

Oil prices fell early today to the lowest level since early 2007. Oil traders are concerned about the economic outlook and demand for energy.On the NYMEX electronic trading session Light Sweet Crude fell to 57,90 USD a barrel, the lowest price since March 20th 2007, a 20 month low. Is it a buy here? Jim Rogers said last week on Bloomberg that he was buying and...

IEA may cut Oil Demand by 700,000 Barrels/Day

The International Energy Agency may cut its 2009 oil demand forecast for a third month as the threat of the worst recession since World War II saps fuel consumption, former IEA analysts said. The Paris-based adviser to 28 oil consuming nations will reduce the estimated growth in global demand from 700,000 barrels a day, or 0.8 percent, in its next monthly report on Nov. 13, said four analysts who used to work at the IEA and are now at banks....

Oil prices fluctuated throughout the day

Oil prices fluctuated throughout the day Monday, tracking closely with the path on Wall Street where an early rally failed to hold and the dollar reversing its early losses against the euro. Crude Oil futures continue to trade opposite to the dollar.December Light Sweet Crude rose 1.37 to settle at 62.41 a barrel on the NYMEX Monday, but traded as low as 59.10...

Qatar Oil minister fears a Supply Crisis

Oil prices should be above 70 dollars/barrel to stimulate investments in increased production capacity. With oil prices below 70 dollars, we can hava e medium to long term supply crisis, Qatar's oil minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said on Monday."Now what we are seeing is that the oil price went to a level that leads me to be concerned it will create another crisis in the short term or medium term for supply," Abdullah bin Hamad...

Oil dips below 60 USD

Crude oil futures were rising due to the Chinese economic stimulus package Saudi Arabia's Aramco plan to cut oil deliveries to Asia by 5% but reversed and traded below 60 dollars a barr...

Oil Forecasts

Oil is now 88 dollars below its all time high and touches a 20 month low. Where is it headed now?Boone Pickens Oil ForecastPickens predicts that price will recover to about $100 per barrel during 2009. "This is the worst credit crunch I've ever had," he said, adding, "We've been through them before; you just work your way through it." He predicts consolidation...

The fall in oil prices is temporary, Chavez says

The fall in oil prices is temporary and will rebound because of high demand, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said. Chavez cited a report from the International Energy Agency released this week saying oil-import prices will average $100 a barrel between 2008 and 2015 and that the threat of a ``supply crunch'' remains. ``These are circumstances we are living,''...

OPEC may cut further

OPEC president Chakib Khelil reportedly said on Saturday that further cuts in oil output from the OPEC nations could be on the way if attempts last month to reduce production fail to halt the current plunge in crude prices.Follow every oil piece of news here on the Oil Traders Blog. Outlook from the top oil investors from around the world. Where is oil heading?...

Jim Rogers Outlook on Oil

Rogers: "Whether oil costs 45 or 145 dollars, it doesn’t really matter. What does matter is that with oil, like with many other commodities, supply is decreasing while demand is increasing. In the long run this will result in a considerable increase in prices.""The question is not if the price of a barrel of oil will increase again, but how expensive a barrel...

IEA predicts oil price to rebound to USD 100 a barrel

International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that crude oil prices will recover to more than 100 dollars a barrel as soon as the economomies around the world recover and will top 200 dollars in 20 years time.The report said that market imbalances could temporarily cause prices to fall back, due to slowing cyclical demand. Its World Energy Outlook has come to this...

What are oil futures?

Futures contracts are financial instruments and carry with them legally binding obligations. Buyer and seller have the obligation to take or make delivery of an underlying instrument at a specified settlement date in the future. Oil futures are part of the derivatives family of financial products as their value 'derives' from the underlying instrument. These contracts are standardised in terms of quality, quantity and settlement dates.There...

Every time an election is held for any office, the subject of ANWR Drilling, America’s dependence on petroleum and the politics of oil and gas eventually comes up in discussion. To understand the debate the overall issue of Anwr and the impacts of drilling there must be clearly understood. Why? Because the issue of climate change, oil exploration and the future...